Chapter 2: Population development, Age pyramid and Sex Ratios

In the last post, we gave a general introduction to the country and its capital city (Chapter 1). As for the present chapter, it will give you an introudction to Tehran's demographic characteristics: Sex ratio, population structure, age pyramid... After having read this post and the next six chapters, you will know the most important facts about demographic profile of Tehran !

 

Age Pyramid and Sex Ratio

According to the 2006 census, the population of Tehran was 7,803,883, of which 3.986.419 were male and 3.817.464 were female. The male population in Tehran is generally larger than the female population. The sex ratio (that is, the number of men for every 100 women) in Tehran is 104.4, but the index for Tehran province is 106, which is more than that of the total country (104). In 1996, this figure for Tehran was 105,4. This is mainly due to the migration of young men to Tehran. Many young men have migrated from all parts of the country to seek jobs in the cities surrounding Tehran as they find life in Tehran very expensive. However, the ratio is too imbalanced in various cities of the province, but in Tehran it is more balanced.

Other interesting facts:

• Iranian women live longer than the men
• Birth mortality is higer for the boys than for girls
• Both Tehran and Iran have a large share of people aged between 20 and 34, who are part of the post-1979 generation.

Figure 1: Tehran age and sex pyramid, 2011
(own illustration. source: Tehran statistical yearbook, 2011-2012)

Figure 2: Iran age and sex pyramid, 1976-2011
(own illustration. source: Tehran statistical yearbook, 2011-2012)

Some History: Tehran's Population Development over Time

During the period 1975–2000, Tehran's population doubled. The annual population growth rate of tehran declined significantly from 3,4% in 1986 to less than 1,5% in 2000–2001. The fertility rate was high in the 1950s and 1960s and decreased very little during the late 1970s. Following the Family Planning Programme of 1989 the fertility rates fell significantly, and by late 2000 had dropped to around 2,1 in all urban areas as well as some rural districts. As more than 50% of the population is under the age of 20, population growth will continue. As for the proportion of elderly people (age group 65+), it has risen to 5,0%.

Since 1976, and especially after 1986, development of the Tehran metropolis has been characterized by a rapid growth of its suburban areas, which now contain 30% of its almost 9million inhabitants.


(own illustration. source: Tehran statistical yearbook, 2011-2012)

Between 1986 and 1996, the city's population growth rate was particularly high. The main reason behind this phenomenon was the islamic revolution and the 8-year-long war with Iraq which followed the aftermath of the revolution. During the war the supreme leader of the time encouraged people to give birth, as as to create an 'army of 20 million'. Young Iranians were encouraged to get married earlier and have more children. Food and everything else was rationed during and for a few years after the war. In short, the more family members you had, the more food you could get. Such policy soon had huge effects: fertility rates rose tremendously!

Fertility Rates

The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7,0 children per woman in 1986 to 2,0 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. In contrast to other Middle Eastern countries, Iran has experienced a dramatic change in its period fertility rates during the last three decades. The total fertility rate, which was 6,07 children per woman in 1976, rose to 7,0 in 1986, and then declined rapidly to 5,3 in 1988 and 2,0 in 2000 . The economic hardship associated with the 1980–88 war with Iraq and the shift in the population policies from pro- to anti-natalist in the late 1980s, are significant factors in this decline.

(source: Atals of Tehran Metropolis)

Nowadays, more than half (58%) of currently married women who use contraceptives reported that they do not want more children in the future.

 

(own illustration. source: Atlas of Tehran Metropolis)

 

Marriage was postponed in these contexts. Contraception was used at subsequent parities to reduce the number of children. Birth control immediately after marriage is also becoming relatively common in Iran, especially among the most educated. How can we understand this new phenomenon? Does it signal a sort gender and marriage change, an emerging feminist ideology and companionate marriage? Or, in the Iranian context, is birth control allowing for maintenance of an early marriage regime consistent with Iranian-Islamist ideology? The questions are left open for discussion.

 

Sources:

- Raftery, Lewis, & Aghajanian (1995).
- Statistical centre of Iran
- Tehran statistical yearbook, 2011-2012
- Atlas of Tehran Metropolis

 

>> Continue to Chapter 3 on Religion and Ethnicity in Tehran !